Longshot betting, explained

Big odds don't have to mean bad bets.

A longshot is the most misunderstood bet in sports. We break down what it really is, the math behind it, and how to find the few underdogs actually worth your money.

+400
The odds most books call the start of longshot territory
20%
Implied probability of a +400 bet before the book's cut
Value
The only reason a longshot is ever worth taking
The basics

What is a longshot, anyway?

In betting, a longshot is a wager the sportsbook prices as unlikely to win — which means it pays a lot if it does. The term comes from horse racing, where a horse given long odds was called a "long shot." The idea carried over to every sport.

1

Low probability, high payout

A longshot might win 1 time in 5 (or far less), but when it hits, it pays back several times your stake. That's the trade: lower hit rate, bigger reward.

2

Shown in the odds

Longshots show up as big American numbers (+400, +900, +2500), decimals of 5.00 or higher, or fractions like 9/1. The bigger the number, the longer the shot.

3

The book's cut works against you

Sportsbooks build a margin into every price — and that margin grows larger on longshots. The house's edge is biggest exactly where the dream of a big payday lives.

4

Value is the whole game

A longshot is only a good bet when the odds pay more than the real chance of winning. Finding that gap — called positive expected value — is what separates smart longshot bettors from gamblers.

The journal

Three guides to bet longshots well

Evergreen, no-hype reads that cover the definition, the strategy, and the process — so you can think clearly before you place a longshot bet.

Get in touch

Have a question about longshot betting?

Send a note and we'll get back to you. We don't sell picks — we explain the math.

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